The United States federal government should enact a moratorium on hyperscale data center construction.

High emissions risk global catastrophic extinction events.

The distribution of ECS is “heavy tailed,” with a higher probability of very high values of ECS than of very low values.¶ There is significant uncertainty over future anthropogenic GHG emissions as well. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5, now SSP5-8.5), the highest emissions pathway used in IPCC scenarios, most closely matches cumulative emissions to date (25). This may not be the case going forward, because of falling prices of renewable energy and policy responses (26). Yet, there remain reasons for caution. For instance, there is significant uncertainty over key variables such as energy demand and economic growth. Plausibly higher economic growth rates could make RCP8.5 35% more likely (27).¶ Why Explore Climate Catastrophe?¶ Why do we need to know about the plausible worst cases? First, risk management and robust decision-making under uncertainty requires knowledge of extremes. For example, the minimax criterion ranks policies by their worst outcomes (28).

Economic decline does not cause a lasting decline in well-being.

Komatsu 24 [Hikaru Komatsu; Consultant for The World Bank, Principal Researcher of On-The-Slope, Adjunct Associate Professor & International Degree Program in Climate Change and Sustainable Development from National Taiwan University; 9-1-2024; “Well-Being in Times of Decline: The Feasibility and Effectiveness of Degrowth for Sustainability”; Journal of Future Studies; doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202409_29(1).0005; DOA:9-10-2025] auraine // recut aaf

In Greece, a decline in economic standards initially led to a decline in subjective well-being. However, within one decade, the level of subjective well-being subsequently returned to where it once stood, despite no recovery of economic standards. Similar results have already been reported in Japan (Komatsu et al., 2022a). Japan and Greece represent the only available cases of high-income countries experiencing a long-term economic decline. In both instances, no long-term decline in subjective well-being was observed. This unequivocally demonstrates that a decline in economic standards does not necessarily lead to a lasting decrease in subjective well-being, findings that directly challenge the work of Büchs and Koch (2019) and Milanovic (2021). Those two previous studies have contributed doubts about degrowth. But these results for Greece and Japan suggest that such doubts may be unwarranted when the perspective shifts to a longer time span. In short, our results suggest subjective well-being is elastic and recovers in a relatively short time span. The case of Greece is particularly important because it experienced a more pronounced economic decline than Japan. Greece experienced a more than 20% decline in GDP per capita and little economic recovery thereafter. Despite this, the rebound in subjective well-being is evident. Beyond the cases of Greece and Japan, few other high-income countries have experienced steep declines in economic standards. Italy and Spain experienced a decline in economic standards on a smaller magnitude, with GDP per capita values in 2021 for these countries respectively 7% and 8% lower than the peak value recorded in 2007. Our supplementary analysis of Standard Eurobarometer Series data (European Union website, 2023a) revealed that levels of subjective well-being there also recovered after the crisis. In 2007, the percentage of respondents who were “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied” stood at 73% for Italy and 88% for Spain. These figures declined to 54% and 65% in 2013, respectively. However, at present, these percentages have again risen to 78% and 87% for Italy and Spain, respectively. The current level of subjective well-being is comparable to that before the crisis for both countries. Environmental impacts For Greece, reductions in environmental impacts have been more rapid and comprehensive than those observed in other European countries, even those with strong green growth policies. Importantly, this study utilized recently obtained data after the widespread implementation of green growth policies. These findings support recent arguments by Hickel and Kallis (2020), Keyßer and Lenzen (2021), and Jeswani et al. (2022), specifically that although green growth policies may lead to some decrease in several environmental impact indicators, that decrease may not be sufficiently rapid or comprehensive to achieve environmental sustainability (as discussed in the introduction). Our study provides concrete empirical evidence that supports degrowth being more effective than green growth in reducing environmental impacts. Although this topic has been extensively discussed in the literature, empirical examinations have been scarce. Therefore, our study fills this void by offering solid evidence that reinforces the argument for prioritizing degrowth strategies over green growth alternatives. Behind the well-being recovery Although Japan and Greece offer insights into the feasibility and effectiveness of degrowth, these countries do not, in fact, serve as examples of successful degrowth transitions to a post-growth society (Tokic, 2013). Degrowth is an intentional movement that aims to shift the focus from economic development to the well-being of humans and nature, ultimately leading to reduced environmental impacts (Andreoni and Galmarini, 2014; Kallis et al., 2018). However, neither Japan nor Greece actively embraced this shift towards well-being. Instead, their political leadership focused on revitalizing their economies when faced with economic decline. Notably, in Japan, economic strategy papers continued to focus on GDP for more than a decade following the onset of economic decline (e.g., Cabinet Office, 2004). Only after this period did the focus gradually shift towards employment (Cabinet Office, 2007) and working hours (Cabinet Office, 2019), indicators more directly linked to people’s well-being. Similarly, a recently published blueprint for Greece’s future still emphasizes GDP growth over well-being (Government of Greece, 2021). GDP is mentioned 214 times in the document, whereas well-being is mentioned merely 10 times. Both Japan and Greece thus unintentionally experienced a recovery of well-being, without a deliberate transition towards degrowth. Further studies should thus explore mechanisms behind the recovery of subjective well-being levels in Greece and Japan, as well as Italy and Spain. This exploration will help scholars and policymakers gain insights into how to navigate the initial stages of a degrowth transition. To initiate this exploration, we propose one hypothesis regarding the recovery of subjective well-being. Our hypothesis posits that while governments, industries, and citizens responded to 4the crisis in an ad hoc manner, their efforts incidentally aligned with some of the proposals made by degrowth theorists. Our literature review largely supports this hypothesis. As mentioned in the introduction, degrowth theorists advocate for downscaling the production and consumption of less vital elements for human and environmental well-being. In Japan, despite a large reduction in overall consumption, the consumption of food, utilities, water, and health and medical care remained unchanged or even increased after economic growth ceased (Komatsu et al., 2022a). Similarly, in Greece, the economic crisis had the least impact on sectors such as agriculture, health, and social work (Voulgaris et al., 2015). The economic downscaling led to a rise in unemployment, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups in both countries (Ohtake, 2000; Anagnostopoulos et al., 2015). This indicates that Japan and Greece do not represent successful cases of degrowth. However, both countries eventually implemented measures to prevent an increase in social inequality. They strengthened support for vulnerable groups, including unemployed youth and families with children, and reduced wage gaps between full-time and part-time employees (Kasaki, 2011; Kourahanis et al., 2017; Kenjo, 2021; Matsaganis, 2020). Although the effectiveness of these measures varied, both countries moved in the direction proposed by degrowth theorists. Notably, they succeeded in preventing a considerable increase in income inequality, as assessed by the Gini index and p90/p10 ratios (Argitis et al., 2017; OECD, 2023b). Importantly, the economic downscaling catalyzed the implementation of measures to ensure social inequality, particularly in Greece, where the downscaling was more pronounced. Interestingly, Greece failed to implement such measures to ensure social equality in the 1990s and 2000s when economic conditions were more favorable. The economic crisis made existing injustices and inequality more visible, prompting the successful implementation of measures to ensure social equality in the 2010s (Matsaganis, 2020). The economic downscaling also catalyzed the emergence of non-governmental collective initiatives that work for improving well-being. In Japan, many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) emerged in the late 1990s after the economic crisis (JANIC, 2022). These NGOs often took on the roles that were originally played by governmental organizations (Ogawa, 2004). Greece witnessed an even more pronounced emergence of non-governmental collective initiatives (Benmecheddal et al., 2017; Zaimakis, 2018; Kourachanis et al., 2019; Markantonatou, 2021). These initiatives included social kitchens, social medical centers, and alternative markets. Social kitchens and medical centers were run by volunteers and provided food and medical services in public spaces. Alternative markets often used bartering and alternative currencies (including time) to facilitate relational exchanges. The rise of alternative initiatives is consistent with the perspective put forth by degrowth and post-growth advocates (Nørgård, 2013; Barlow et al., 2022; Buch-Hansen and Nesterova, 2023). The institutional transformation described above was accompanied by broader cultural shifts in both Japan and Greece. Correlations between institutions and culture are widely discussed in existing literature (Ma

China is aggressively pursuing AI for military dominance.

Lauren Kahn 22—Research fellow on defense innovation and emerging technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2/15/2022, “What the Defense Department’s 2021 China Military Power Report Tells Us About Defense Innovation”, Lawfare Blog, https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-defense-departments-2021-china-military-power-report-tells-us-about-defense-innovation

Reviewed in the context of these developments, the China Military Power Report highlights the “importance of meeting the pacing challenge presented by the PRC’s increasingly capable military and its global ambitions.” It illustrates that the CCP intends to dominate in these technological areas and military uses, and it demonstrates their ability to follow up on that intent. But there is a difference between stated intentions and capabilities, both in China’s ability to achieve emerging technology leadership and in its ability to transition emerging technologies into fieldable military capabilities. While spending on research and development is a good indicator that China is serious about prioritizing these technologies, it is not a guarantor that China’s defense innovation efforts will succeed. Defense innovation is challenging, and China’s military lacks substantial operational experience.

AI infrastructure is boosting the US economy, offsetting headwinds.

Eric Kelley, 6-12-2026, Kelley is a senior fellow at UMB Bank, "Kelley: U.S. markets hold strong amidst turmoil", Journal Record, https://journalrecord.com/2026/06/12/hormuz-oil-prices-economy-eric-kelley/, gandhi

May economic summary and our outlook The U.S. economy continues to hold steady at or near our normal growth rate of 2.0%. The closing of the Strait and the spike in oil prices and inflation have not, thus far, severely hampered either the economy or markets. The stock market is riding a powerful surge of earnings growth, spurred by huge hyperscaler profits and an AI CapEx boom. Data centers are the backbone – the Aff wrecks investment. In a note dated Thursday, the brokerage said that while AI remains a powerful investment theme, the sector is“frothy, but not a bubble (yet),” and warned that valuations are more exposed than earnings if capital expenditures falter. The backbone of the AI boom has been hyperscaler data center investment, which Barclays said is running at about 25% of sales. That is elevated compared with historical norms but still below the 40% capex-to-sales ratio seen during the dotcom bubble.

Must-pass legislation attracts unrelated riders

Howard Schweitzer 24, CEO of Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies, “Cozen Currents: What Does It Mean to be a Republican or a Democrat Today?”, https://www.cozen.com/news-resources/publications/2024/cozen-currents-what-does-it-mean-to-be-a-republican-or-a-democrat-today-

In Congress, some legislation is traditionally considered too important to hold up, hence the term must pass. Legislation such as the National Defense Authorization Act and disaster relief falls into this category. One reason must pass legislation is significant is because it provides a vehicle for lawmakers to attach favored bills as amendments, creating an easier path to becoming law for measures that may not get a standalone floor vote. The House GOP’s narrow majority under divided government has resulted in a minimalist approach to governance, raising the bar for must pass legislation. Bills that traditionally would have been considered as such in the past are not guaranteed swift passage now. This trend predates the current Congress, however.

States manage data centers sustainably; federal action usurps local control.

Jack Nicastro, 3-26-2026, [Jack Nicastro is a policy analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. He formerly worked at Reason as an assistant editor.] "AI relies on data centers. Bernie Sanders and AOC want to freeze their construction.", Reason, https://reason.com/2026/03/26/ai-relies-on-data-centers-sanders-and-aoc-want-to-freeze-their-construction/, gandhi

Frazier explains that the moratorium would erode the division between "federal leadership on innovation and national priorities [and] state control over local infrastructure impacts….that has long underwritten American growth and characterizes our federal system." Not only can localities stop the construction of data centers, but many have also done just this. In September, Maryland's Prince George's County stopped issuing construction permits for data centers after a community member's petition garnered over 20,000 signatures in opposition. Atlanta has required special permits for data centers since late 2024, and the adjacent Douglas and Clayton counties imposed restrictions on data center development in 2025, according to government relations firm MultiState. Ocasio-Cortez recognized as much during the announcement: "More than 100 local communities across 12 states have already enacted local moratoriums on data centers."