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Nuclear war causes extinction, soot blocks the sun and collapses world agriculture

Robock & Toon 12, Alan Robock (Prof. of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers) & Owen Brian Toon (Prof., Univ. of Colorado), Self-Assured Destruction, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

A regional nuclear exchange would loft roughly five million tons of soot into the stratosphere. That soot spreads worldwide within weeks and stays aloft for over a decade, blocking sunlight and dropping temperatures to ice-age levels, and global food production collapses.

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A regional nuclear exchange would loft roughly five million tons of soot into the stratosphere. That soot spreads worldwide within weeks and stays aloft for over a decade, blocking sunlight and dropping temperatures to ice-age levels, growing seasons shorten, crop yields fail across every major region, and global food production collapses. The resulting famine puts the majority of humanity at risk of starvation and threatens the survival of the species.
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Nuclear war causes extinction, soot blocks the sun and collapses world agriculture

Robock & Toon 12, Alan Robock (Prof. of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers) & Owen Brian Toon (Prof., Univ. of Colorado), Self-Assured Destruction, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

A regional nuclear exchange would loft five million tons of soot into the stratosphere. That soot spreads worldwide within weeks and stays aloft for over a decade, blocking sunlight and dropping temperatures to ice-age levels, growing seasons shorten, crop yields fail across every major region, and global food production collapses. The resulting famine puts the majority of humanity at risk of starvation and threatens the survival of the species.

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Nuclear war causes extinction, soot blocks the sun and collapses world agriculture
  • Power-tagThe tag says extinction, but the card only says the famine could threaten the species, that is a maybe, not a guarantee.
  • AssumptionAssumes a full regional exchange detonates over cities; a limited or counterforce strike lofts far less soot and breaks the chain.
  • TurnNuclear winter cooling cuts both ways, opponents can argue it offsets warming impacts you read elsewhere, straight-turning your own scenario.
  • Cross-exAsk: what soot tonnage does your author assume, and what happens to the impact if the real number is half that?

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